NAISS
SUPR
NAISS Projects
SUPR
Predicting population dynamics
Dnr:

NAISS 2026/4-1572

Type:

NAISS Small

Principal Investigator:

Dongni Zhang

Affiliation:

Linköpings universitet

Start Date:

2026-11-01

End Date:

2027-11-01

Primary Classification:

30118: Medical Biostatistics

Webpage:

Allocation

Abstract

This project continues our previous NAISS project on predicting large-scale population dynamics in Sweden, including marriage, divorce, childbirth, education and employment transitions, using Swedish population registry data from 2015 to 2023. During this continuation, we will refine and validate the predictive models, and finally integrate them into our existing individual-based simulation framework, which was previously developed to study the long-term health impacts of a digital alcohol intervention. We will assess how the models perform when used together in the simulator. For instance, even though each model performs well separately, their combined predictions need checking. If substantial differences occur, we will investigate how to adjust the models accordingly.