NAISS
SUPR
NAISS Projects
SUPR
Policy-relevant EC-Earth simulations
Dnr:

NAISS 2026/3-556

Type:

NAISS Medium

Principal Investigator:

Paul Miller

Affiliation:

Lunds universitet

Start Date:

2026-06-24

End Date:

2027-07-01

Primary Classification:

10501: Climate Science

Secondary Classification:

10508: Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences

Tertiary Classification:

10502: Environmental Sciences (Social aspects at 50909 and agricultural at 40504)

Allocation

Abstract

Climate change is a threat to societies and ecosystems worldwide, and policymakers and society at large need actionable information to inform mitigation and adaptation policies and strategies. Climate and Earth system models (ESMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) can provide this information, and ESM/RCM experiments inform many of the conclusions in scientific assessment reports underpinning policy, such as the regular Assessment Reports from the UN IPCC. In our Medium Project, we are committed, as SFO MERGE members and as partners in the Horizon Europe projects RESCUE and OptimESM, to a series of ESM experiments that will study and quantify crucial, policy-relevant land-atmosphere interactions, including: the carbon cycle’s response to overshooting policy-relevant temperature goals, net-zero emissions, and the feasibility and impact of land-based carbon dioxide removal. We have also committed to contribute with CMIP7 future scenario simulations with a next-generation ESM, EC-Earth4, which will be the ESM at the centre of Sweden’s climate modelling efforts ahead of, and in support of, the next IPCC report. Our application for compute resources is in line with the maximum allowable under this call. Our storage requirements exceed the maximum allowable, which we motivate in the relevant section below, but which is a consequence of the fact that we currently have a Large Storage project (NAISS 2-16, 120 TiB) that is the minimum we need to carry out the crucial simulations for CMIP7 and Horizon projects RESCUE and OptimESM.