NAISS
SUPR
NAISS Projects
SUPR
Causal inference of remote transpiration to precipitation teleconnections
Dnr:

NAISS 2026/4-1123

Type:

NAISS Small

Principal Investigator:

Romi Amilia Lotcheris

Affiliation:

Stockholms universitet

Start Date:

2026-06-17

End Date:

2027-07-01

Primary Classification:

10509: Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources

Webpage:

Allocation

Abstract

This project is connected to the FORMAS funded SAFER project: Safeguarding Freshwater Resilience in the Anthropocene. In the Anthropocene, risks and resilience losses interact and propagate globally through both biophysical and socioeconomic flows - such as atmospheric dynamics and trade. This means that even countries with relatively low local water risks, such as Sweden, cannot detach themselves from the rising threats of global water resilience risks. The aim of the SAFER project is to address this gap, by analyzing how severe and widespread loss of water resilience in the Anthropocene impacts distant countries through biophysical and socioeconomic flows, and generating knowledge on how to safeguard water resilience locally, regionally, and globally. Specifically, in this NAISS project, we would like to use causal inference methods to causally identify relationships between transpiration moisture sources and precipitation sinks. We aim to identify the existence, directionality, lag structure, and strength of moisture recycling teleconnections. Moisture recycling is to date primarily understood through models, which can disagree on the footprints and volumes of water from (and to) sources and sinks. Here, we will use several satellite-derived time series to provide a complementary empirical perspective.