NAISS
SUPR
NAISS Projects
SUPR
Macroeconomics and heterogeneity in the labor and housing market
Dnr:

NAISS 2026/3-460

Type:

NAISS Medium

Principal Investigator:

Kieran Larkin

Affiliation:

Stockholms universitet

Start Date:

2026-06-01

End Date:

2027-06-01

Primary Classification:

50201: Economics

Allocation

Abstract

Macroeconomics has made great strides in understanding the implications of heterogeneity for aggregate outcomes. In recent years, research in this area has changed how we think about the transmission of monetary policy. However, many important questions remain unanswered, including: how labor market risk shapes household portfolio decisions; how the housing market affects monetary transmission; and how labor markets will respond to the combined effects of AI and remote work. In this project, I study key dimensions through which household heterogeneity helps explain features of the macroeconomy, particularly the severity of recessions. In the first strand, I study how heterogeneous job risk, specifically the possibility of unemployment, affects households' asset decisions and the economy's responsiveness to shocks. I show that a secular decline in job separation rates since the 1980s has shaped household asset allocation, enabling households to invest in illiquid, high-return assets such as housing. This has left households less well insured and amplified the shocks of the Great Recession. In the second strand, I study how different mortgage market arrangements affect the pass-through from interest rates to house prices. In particular, I document cross-country differences in the size of house price declines during the 2021-23 period of interest rate tightening. This pattern is consistent with variation in countries' exposure to adjustable versus fixed-rate mortgages. Adjustable-rate mortgages were associated with larger price declines, while the prevalence of fixed-rate mortgages helps explain the relative resilience of US house prices and the observed decline in transactions. In the third strand, I study the implications for gender inequality of two major labor market shifts: remote work and AI. Most of the remaining female wage penalty can be accounted for by a pay premium associated with "greedy jobs", roles requiring long hours that are difficult to reconcile with shared childcare responsibilities. Remote work may reduce this barrier, while AI is reshaping labor demand across occupations. I examine the joint impact of these changes on male and female occupational choices, with emphasis on household insurance and general equilibrium effects, including wages and interest rates, in both the short and long run. Studying the macroeconomy with realistic micro-foundations is computationally demanding. Rather than modeling the combined response of household decisions jointly, I take a disaggregated approach. This requires solving the household problem over a rich state space, encompassing individual income, occupation, wealth, and asset positions, and simulating distributions of hundreds of thousands of individual decision-makers, whose choices are then aggregated to economy-wide measures. The approach places significant demands on both compute time and memory, given the need to store variation in dynamic decision-making across a large population. Frontier research of this kind is therefore only feasible with generous access to high-performance computing resources.