NAISS
SUPR
NAISS Projects
SUPR
ECE-TIP: Earth System Model Simulations with EC-Earth for Exploring Tipping Points
Dnr:

NAISS 2026/1-52

Type:

NAISS Large

Principal Investigator:

Erik Kjellström

Affiliation:

SMHI

Start Date:

2026-07-01

End Date:

2027-07-01

Primary Classification:

10501: Climate Science

Secondary Classification:

10508: Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences

Tertiary Classification:

10599: Other Earth Sciences

Webpage:

Allocation

Abstract

Global warming continues at unprecedented speed and several Earth system phenomena are increasingly at risk for tipping. Tipping of Earth system elements such as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), land ice masses on Greenland and Antarctica or tropical forests may result in severe consequences for ecosystems, biodiversity and society. Current understanding of Tipping Points is mainly based on conceptual models, physical climate models or component models and is still subject to large uncertainty. Earth system models (ESMs) are increasing in their process realism and now include key interactive components such as ice sheets, dynamic vegetation and wildfires, human land-use, permafrost and full cycles of important greenhouse-gases and nutrients, and are thus well-placed for advancing the knowledge on tipping points. The European Horizon project TipESM will apply such ESMs to perform a number of coordinated ESM simulations to improve understanding of the driving processes of tipping points, the risk for cascades throughout the Earth system and the potential impacts of tipping. These experiments will include idealised warming, long-term zero-emission and cooling simulations. In addition, a number of experiments where a tipping of the AMOC is artificially introduced to investigate the impacts of an AMOC shutdown. ECE-TIP will contribute to TipESM with the EC-Earth ESM version EC-Earth3-ESM-1 and the newly developed EC-Earth4-ESM. The ensemble of simulations from various TipESM partners will provide the base for the scientific analysis of tipping points by SMHI. This ensemble of simulations will also contribute to the Tipping Point Model Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP) and will provide input to the upcoming seventh IPCC Assessment Report.