Summer sea-surface temperatures in the Baltic Sea are predicted to increase by ~2 °C in the south and ~4 °C in the north by the end of this century, accompanied by a drastic decrease in sea-ice cover. This is likely to have profound impacts on marine ecosystems that need to be understood to formulate appropriate management plans.
Baltic salmon is a culturally, biologically and economically important resource, supplying ecosystem and provisioning services and supporting livelihoods. Salmon life-histories are finely tuned to local environmental conditions, which are closely linked to climate. Observed effects of warming in salmonids include altered migration timing, reduced disease resistance and elevated mortality for spawning fish.
This project will make use of a unique data set (tag recaptures and scales dating from the 1920s to the present) combined with recent advances in statistical modelling and integrated analysis to measure the impact of climatic change on Baltic salmon life-history. We will apply state of the art state-space hierarchical Bayesian models to i) quantify changes in life-history traits (growth, survival at sea, spawning age and frequency) since the 1920s and ii) correlate spatial and temporal gradients in these traits with the environment (sea surface temperature, ice cover etc.). This work will provide vital insights for sustainable management of Baltic salmon stocks in a changing climate, with an immediate and direct value to society.